If I’ve learned anything in my 13 years analyzing the NFL draft, it that it’s okay to just “like” a prospect.
It seems the professional sportification of our society has led us down a zero-sum path.
Athletics at its core emphasizes and promotes what’s truly great about mankind, and what we’re capable of when we work together. Indeed, teamwork, leadership, communication, patience, focus, discipline, responsibility, resilience and perseverance are all life lessons sports teaches us.
But pro sports these days essentially boils down to wins and losses, for what are primarily bottom-line focused entertainment companies. And that’s fine, but it’s a short stroll from feeling like everything is either a win or a loss, obsessed with the bottom line, to feeling like love and hate are the only pragmatic emotions.
Once again, it’s fine for a sports league or pro franchise to operate that way, but not so much for a human being. It creates an unsustainable environment for public discourse, whether we’re discussing the NFL draft or climate change.
I like Shedeur Sanders’ chances of being a good quarterback in the pros. I don’t love them, and I certainly don’t hate them.
There’s maybe a half dozen players every draft that will thrive in the NFL no matter where they end up.
It doesn’t matter who coaches them. It doesn’t matter what the system is. It doesn’t matter who their teammates are.
Sometimes it’s easy to predict. Occasionally, a few of these players fall through the cracks of analysis. The other 300-plus prospects who are drafted or sign as priority free agents are dependent on one variable or another breaking their way.
It will matter who coaches Sanders. The system will play a significant role in his success or failure. And that’s fine.
He reminds me of a shorter, more slight version of Jared Goff, and that isn’t an insult. I have him ranked as the No. 2 QB in this draft class, a borderline first-rounder.
Judging by the last four months, Sanders will undoubtedly be the focus of Thursday’s first round in Green Bay, although he won’t be attending. Which is probably best, because the range where he could be drafted goes from the top-three picks to the top of the second round.
Regardless, his journey is just beginning. While ours is coming to a close this weekend, at least for this draft cycle.
I study 32 professional football teams and hundreds of college football players on a loop. I attempt to read the hands of 32 poker-faced general managers who treat their draft boards and strategy like government secrets (apparently I’m in the wrong group chat).
Although, I was one of the few analysts last year, in this very space, to offer up Michael Penix Jr. as a “wild card” option for the Atlanta Falcons with the No. 8 pick, writing: “There’s simply been too much smoke surrounding the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) for me to ignore at this point.”
I do my best to make sense of all this.
Here’s an in-depth breakdown of all the possibilities for the first round of this year’s NFL draft, including where Sanders could end up and who might make trades Thursday night in primetime:
1. Titans
Plan A: Cam Ward (Miami)
Nothing’s official until the commissioner says the name, but the draft usually begins with the second overall pick.
Plan B: None.
Tennessee has drafted No. 1 overall twice before in a past life as the Houston Oilers. They selected Tampa defensive end John Matuszak (1973) and Texas running back Earl Campbell (1978).
Wild card: None.
Ward means 19 of the last 26 top picks are QBs, including nine of the last 11.
2. Browns
Plan A: Travis Hunter, WR/DB, Colorado
This pick has been trending toward the Heisman Trophy winner since the Buffaloes’ pro day at the beginning of the month.
Plan B: Abdul Carter, DE, Penn State
Carter plus Myles Garrett equals nightmare fuel for offensive coordinators and QBs alike.
Wild card: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Coach Kevin Stefanski was Colorado offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s QB coach in Minnesota when Shurmur was the OC for the Vikings in 2017. And Stefanski’s current QB coach is Bill Musgrave, who was teammates with Sanders’ father, Deion, in San Francisco in 1994 when the 49ers won their last Super Bowl title.
3. N.Y. Giants
Plan A: Carter
The pick is whomever the Browns don’t select between Carter and Hunter. This makes former first-rounder Kayvon Thibodeaux expendable, and possibly available in a trade.
Plan B: Hunter
They prefer him.
Wild card: Sanders
GM Joe Schoen will consider taking Coach Prime’s progeny, but coach Brian Daboll likely prefers a more athletic, stronger-armed signal-caller.
4. Patriots
Plan A: Hunter or Carter
Only way to get either would be to make a “Godfather” offer to the Browns or Giants.
Plan B: Will Campbell, OL, LSU
Coach Mike Vrabel doesn’t have a problem with Campbell’s arm length.
Wild card: Trade down or Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
They like Campbell, but the next four teams all covet Walker, so why not move down a smidge, still get Drake Maye a protector, and add some draft capital? Or de facto GM Eliot Wolf sticks and picks the edge rusher himself.
5. Jaguars
Plan A: Offense
Campbell, OL Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas), RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.) or WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) would bolster their $275 million investment in QB Trevor Lawrence.
Plan B: Defense
An overwhelming percentage of mock drafts have had DT Mason Graham (Michigan) as a lock here since the beginning, but Walker might have the edge if he’s still on the board.
Wild card: Trade down
Maybe the reports of them leaning offense are a smokescreen so new GM James Gladstone can entice a team to come up for Jeanty with Las Vegas next up on the clock.
6. Raiders
Plan A: Jeanty
The No. 1 player on my big board is likely the pick, unless new GM John Spytek gets snaked by the Jags or another team who trades up to No. 5.
Plan B: O-line
With Kolton Miller wanting a new contract and DJ Glaze starting on the right side, both Banks and OL Armand Membou (Missouri) make sense here.
Wild card: Graham, Walker or Sanders
Either defender would create a formidable trio with Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. Minority owner Tom Brady has to at least consider drafting his mentee, especially after making such a big deal about the modern NFL prioritizing starting rookie QBs too early, and hindering their development.
7. N.Y. Jets
Plan A: Offense
Membou would bookend last year’s first-rounder Olu Fashanu at tackle, and Tyler Warren (Penn State) would help diversify a stagnant -attack. Warren would be the sixth tight end they have drafted in the first round since 1967, most in the NFL.
Plan B: Defense
Graham would be hard to on, and DB Jahdae Barron (Texas) would be the perfect replacement for cover corner D.J. Reed, who left in free agency.
Wild card: Banks
He and new coach Aaron Glenn were both born in Humble, Texas.
8. Panthers
Plan A: Defense
GM Dan Morgan loves both Georgia edge rushers, Walker and Mykel Williams, but this is Graham’s floor if he’s available.
Plan B: McMillan or Banks
How much more confident would Bryce Young be throwing to a big target like McMillan? Or with Banks protecting his blindside?
Wild card: Trade down
The defense was historically bad last year, and they need as many bites at the apple as they can get. Teams targeting Jeanty or Warren might want to dance.
9. Saints
Plan A: Trenches
Georgia’s Williams and Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M) make sense if GM Mickey Loomis focuses on All-Pro Cam Jordan’s heir apparent. Also, Texas’ Banks has been mostly overlooked during the draft process, but most of the league had him as a top 15-player from the beginning.
Plan B: Cornerback
Will Johnson (Michigan) and Barron are in play here. New head coach Kellen Moore recently hired Terry Joseph as his defensive game coordinator. Joseph served in the same capacity with the Longhorns, where he also coached the secondary since 2021, including Barron.
Wild card: Trade up
Over the past 17 NFL drafts, Loomis has traded up 27 times, and hasn’t traded down once. New Orleans has the ammo, six of the first 131 picks, but I’m not sure there’s a target. It wouldn’t be for a QB. They’re likely targeting Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) or Tyler Shough (Louisville) in the second round.
10. Bears
Plan A: Jeanty
The Boise State running back is the pick if he’s on the board.
Plan B: Trenches
GM Ryan Poles would consider any of top three tackles (Campbell, Membou or Banks) or an edge rusher (likely Williams).
Wild card: Trade up
There’s not a lot of needs on this roster, so jumping up for Jeanty, or even Warren, would be a gift for new coach Ben Johnson.
11. 49ers
Plan A: D-line
Walter Nolen (Ole Miss) makes sense (this is his ceiling), and San Francisco sent the entire organization to Oregon’s pro day, meaning Derrick Harmon is in play here. Reports recently surfaced of Harmon receiving a medical red flag during the draft process, which might facilitate a slide on draft night, but this would be his ceiling as well, if the Niners are okay with his medical evals.
Plan B: O-line
Any of the top 3 tackles (Campbell, Membou or Banks) would likely be the pick if they’re on the board.
Wild card: Trade down
I’m sure dreams of the 49ers’ dynasty-extending 1986 draft will be dancing in GM John Lynch’s head the night before the draft. Bill Walsh played the rest of the NFL like a fiddle, trading down at will, securing eight starters, including a Hall of Famer (Charles Haley), but you need two to tango. This feels like a trade no-man’s land, unless someone surprisingly falls.
12. Cowboys
Plan A: Wide receiver
McMillan is a better fit than Matthew Golden (Texas), but they both make sense.
Plan B: Cornerback
Both Johnson and Barron fill a need. There are long-term health concerns surrounding former All-Pro Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland will be a free agent after next season.
Wild card: O-line
Banks makes sense, but the first real “curveball” of the draft would be if the Joneses select a guard here, either Tyler Booker (Alabama) or Grey Zabel (North Dakota St.).
13. Dolphins
Plan A: Defensive back
Either of the top 2 corners (Johnson and Barron) or safety Malaki Starks (Georgia) make sense with Jalen Ramsey on the trade block and Jevon Holland leaving in free agency.
Plan B: O-line
This is likely Banks’ floor.
Wild card: D-line
This likely represents a ceiling for Kenneth Grant (Michigan).
14. Colts
Plan A: Tight end
The hardest decision GM Chris Ballard may have this week will come if both Warren and Colston Loveland (Michigan) are both on the board.
Plan B: O-line
They don’t currently have a starting right guard, and Zabel would pair nicely with All-Pro Quenton Nelson.
Wild card: Athlete
Ballard has shown an affinity for prospects with high relative athletic scores (RAS) in the past. Texas A&M’s Stewart and Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina) both scored a perfect 10.00 this time around, and play positions of need (edge and safety).
15. Falcons
Plan A: Trade down
GM Terry Fontenot only has five picks headed into Thursday night.
Plan B: rusher
Georgia’s Williams is the pick if he’s on the board, but they’d also consider James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) and Mike Green (Marshall) despite perceived character concerns. This also might be a ceiling for Jihaad Campbell (Alabama).
Wild card: Tackle
Texas’ Banks would throw a wrench into their plans if he falls this far, but I don’t believe he will.
16. Cardinals
Plan A: Trade down
Monti Ossenfort has made six draft-day trades his two seasons as GM, and five were to move back to acquire additional picks. Arizona currently has six picks.
Plan B: Cornerback
This is likely a floor for both Michigan’s Johnson and Texas’s Barron.
Wild card: Golden
The Texas speedster could stretch the field to open up space for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride to work their intermediate magic.
17. Bengals
Plan A: Edge rusher
If Cincy still plans to trade NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson after Sam Hubbard retired, GM Duke Tobin will likely double-dip at edge this week. Stewart, Pearce Jr., and Green all make sense, but the Texas A&M edge fits their profile the best. Alabama’s Campbell is a dark horse here.
Plan B: Cornerback
It would be a hard if either Johnson or Barron were still available.
Wild card: Safety
One of Starks’ comps is former Cincinnati All-Pro Jessie Bates III, and Emmanwori would add several new wrinkles to new defensive coordinator Al Golden’s scheme.
18. Seahawks
Plan A: Trade
Few work the board like GM John Schneider, and he has 10 picks at his disposal — including five of the first 92 selections. Schneider could move up or down at will.
Plan B: O-line
The interior offensive line is such a glaring weakness. It would be hard to on Booker or Zabel.
Wild card: Playmaker
Both Arizona’s McMillan and Michigan’s Loveland would fill a hole on offense after Schneider dealt star receiver DK Metcalf to the Steelers.
19. Buccaneers
Plan A: Trade down
This could be where the fun begins. The Bucs only have six picks, and this is where the Browns and Giants would begin to consider trading back into the first round for either Sanders or Dart.
Plan B: Campbell
Tampa Bay and the Alabama off-ball linebacker with -rushing upside makes too much sense.
Wild card: Trade up
If GM Jason Licht is locked onto Campbell, he might have to pay a for him.
20. Broncos
Plan A: Trade
Denver is one of two teams actively trying to move up in the draft, perhaps for Jeanty, Warren or Loveland. But what if the Bucs rebuff trade offers from the Browns and/or Giants? This pick becomes even more valuable with the Steelers on the clock next, potentially targeting a QB.
Plan B: Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
It wouldn’t surprise me if a few teams have Hampton as their No. 1 running back considering his size, production and elite athleticism (9.67 RAS).
Wild card: TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio St.)
Coach Sean Payton targeting Henderson for his “joker” role wouldn’t surprise me.
21. Steelers
Plan A: D-line
Pittsburgh’s deliberation begins with whether Nolen, Harmon or Grant are available. This is Nolen’s floor.
Plan B: Running back
If the defensive tackles are gone, Hampton and Henderson would be in play because they don’t currently have a second-rounder.
Wild card: Quarterback
The shock of the draft could come if GM Omar Khan selects the top lottery ticket in this class, Jalen Milroe (Alabama), with Sanders and Dart both still available.
22. L.A. Chargers
Plan A: Playmaker
Tight end Loveland, and receivers McMillan, Golden and Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) would all be upgrades. Hampton would also make sense for a coach like Jim Harbaugh, who commits to running the football.
Plan B: D-line
Grant, who Harbaugh calls a “gift from the football gods,” would be in play. They have also met with edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College).
Wild card: Trade up
Michigan’s Loveland likely isn’t falling outside the top 20.
23. Packers
Plan A: Cornerback
Jaire Alexander could be traded this weekend. Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky) and Trey Amos (Ole Miss) are perfect fits.
Plan B: D-line
Oregon’s Harmon is in play, considering Green Bay was the other team that sent a small army of front office personnel to the Ducks’ pro day. Packers DC Jeff Hafley also coached Ezeiruaku at Boston College.
Wild card: O-line
This is where the the second tier of tackles could potentially begin coming off the board: Josh Simmons (Ohio St.), Josh Conerly Jr. (Oregon) and Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota).
24. Vikings
Plan A: Trade down
GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is working with an NFL-low four picks. The only remaining team who could conceivably draft a QB is the Rams at No. 26, so this might be where the Browns or Giants end up to secure Sanders or Dart, and a fifth-year option.
Plan B: Starks
The Georgia safety fits DC Brian Flores’ scheme perfectly, and would be All-Pro Harrison Smith’s heir apparent.
Wild card: Trenches
Defensive tackles Harmon and Grant would be considered, but this could also be a ceiling for guards Donovan Jackson (Ohio St.) and Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona).
25. Texans
Plan A: O-line
The front office and coaches have emphasized changing the culture of this group. That screams Booker and Jackson. The immense talent of Simmons or Conerly Jr. may be hard to up though.
Plan B: Wide receiver
Golden, Egbuka and Luther Burden Jr. (Missouri) would all pair nicely with Nico Collins.
Wild card: D-line
They hosted Grant for a pre-draft visit last week.
26. L.A. Rams
Plan A: Defense
GM Les Snead has historically undervalued off-ball linebackers, but Alabama’s Campbell offers so much more. Both corners Hairston and Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State) provide good value, and fill a big need.
Plan B: O-line
Right tackle Rob Havenstein is entering his 11th season, and will be a free agent next year.
Wild card: Trade down or QB
L.A.’s next pick is at No. 90, so Snead will at least entertain serious offers. Honestly though, Sanders is a good fit.
27. Ravens
Plan A: Best available player
It wouldn’t surprise me if GM Eric DeCosta walks away with either Georgia’s Starks or Alabama’s Booker.
Plan B: rusher
Both Tennessee’s Pearce Jr., the best pure rusher behind Penn State’s Carter and Marshall’s Green, the FBS sack leader last year, could still be on the board.
Wild card: Emmanwori
I’m paraphrasing the “The Social Network” here, but having one Kyle Hamilton is fine, but you know what is cool? Two Kyle Hamiltons.
28. Lions
Plan A: D-line
Harmon’s a Detroit native, and Tyleik Williams (Ohio State) would plug a big hole on the interior.
Plan B: Wide receiver
It wouldn’t shock me if GM Brad Holmes targeted Jayden Higgins (Iowa State) to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown, especially with Jameson Williams’ situation up in the air.
Wild card: O-line
Pro Bowl tackle Taylor Decker will be 32 years old in August and swing tackle Dan Skipper will be 31 in September.
29. Commanders
Plan A: Trade down
Washington only has five picks, with none in the third or fifth round, where there will still be starters available.
Plan B: Edge rusher
Green, Ezeiruaku and Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) all make sense. Washington has also showed a lot of interest in Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA).
Wild card: Henderson
A scary thought, adding the dynamic back to an offense already featuring Jayden Daniels and Deebo Samuel.
30. Bills
Plan: Cornerback
There’s currently a big void in Buffalo’s secondary opposite Christian Benford. Hairston, Amos, and Thomas all fit, but Shavon Revel Jr. (East Carolina) would be the most intriguing option.
Plan B: D-line
GM Brandon Beane would consider Grant or Harmon.
Wild card: Linebacker
This feels like a ceiling for Carson Schwesinger (UCLA).
31. Chiefs
Plan A: O-line
I can’t imagine GM Brett Veach would on Simmons, Conerly Jr. or Ersery, a Kansas City native, after the way his offensive line was embarrassed in the Super Bowl.
Plan B: Edge rusher
Character concerns haven’t been a deal breaker when it comes to past drafts so Pearce Jr. and Green are in play.
Wild card: Henderson or trade up
It makes too much sense if he’s here, but Veach could also try to leapfrog the Texans and Rams for a tackle.
32. Eagles
Plan A: Trade
GM Howie Roseman has traded Philly’s first pick in seven of the last 11 drafts. Plus, he’s fresh off tying an NFL record for most trades (eight) since the draft went to seven rounds.
Plan B: Trenches
No one is more diligent in replenishing his team’s lifeblood than Roseman. This would be a great spot for Texas A&M’s Scourton or Darius Alexander (Toledo).
Wild card: Mason Taylor (LSU)
Trade winds have been swirling around tight end Dallas Goedert.
